NWS urges preparation as potential supercell storm moves in

A severe weather system with the potential for hail and tornados is moving in Friday afternoon. However, the details were still uncertain at a severe weather conference hosted Thursday by Paducah National Weather service forecaster Justin Gibbs.

According to Gibbs, severe weather could appear as early as 2 p.m., especially across Southeastern Missouri and Western Kentucky, but “more than likely the weather will develop about 3-4 p.m. in the late afternoon and it will still probably develop mainly over South Central Missouri or Southeastern Missouri.

“If we have the instability, these type of storms are likely to turn into supercell storms, and those are the strongest type of storms we have. That is where most of our stronger tornadoes that occur are coming from and those are the types of storms that we are concerned about developing,” Gibbs explained.

There are so many different factors that cannot be measured, according to Gibbs, who further explained, “the risk is high enough to be prepared, particularly across Southeastern Missouri and Western Kentucky, for the possibility of severe weather including the large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. And unfortunately, potentially stronger tornadoes are at least possible, with the possibility of a supercell storm developing.”

In the afternoon and early evening, the risk was expected to be the strongest across Southeastern Missouri and Southern Illinois.

“When you think about the scale of tornadoes and the scale of the planet, and how hard it is to narrow down severe weather, specific corridors and timing, it’s very difficult,” explained Gibbs. “So you could still see some changes in the forecast, especially through (Friday) morning when we get that look at first sunrise and see where everything is and see how the moisture is distributed.”

No severe weather was expected for Friday morning, “but you may wake up to a rumble of thunder,” said Gibbs.

The storms will be tracking eastward at 50-60 mph. On the ground, a south wind with gusts of 35-40 mph is expected. The highest tornado risk is projected between 4-7 p.m. and will continue after dark.

The NWS emergency alert system has been upgraded since the last storm to alert only for major changes.

“A lot of folks turned those off when we issued flash flood warnings and had it go off for every single flash flood warning,” Gibbs explained. “We made changes so only significant warnings will (cause an) alarm, so folks can turn those back on to get those tornado warnings.”

Gibbs listed ways to prepare for the possibility of severe weather, a shelter plan. “If you don’t have a safe place to be, think about ways to get to a safe place and try to be there before the weather arrives.”

The worst places to shelter are in mobile homes and vehicles, or underneath highway overpasses. An interior room, a well-constructed home, building or basement is the best and safest option.

“The main rule of thumb is putting as many walls between yourself and the outside as possible,” said Gibbs.

He also urged people to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, like radios, phones, televisions and the internet.

More updates will be available on the National Weather Service’s website at weather.gov.