What are the odds? Who knows in sports

Two weeks ago the St. Louis Cardinals were given a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs according to a website that tracks such things. They entered Friday a half game in the lead for the final playoff spot in the National League.

Now the computer at fangraphs.com says the Cardinals have a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs.

This weekend’s series against the San Diego Padres, one of four teams within five games of the Cardinals, is almost like a three-game playoff series. Those playoff odds will swing dramatically with every run scored and game won.

A lot can happen over the final 15 games.

Or 15 minutes.

On Tuesday, the Poplar Bluff softball team trailed by two runs twice in extra innings only to rally. In fact, the Mules rallied four times to beat a state-ranked Notre Dame team that had not lost to Poplar Bluff since 2017.

Using an online spreadsheet someone smarter than me created, I entered in those comebacks to see how unlikely they were. The formula is called win probability and fans might see these graphs that show the likelihood one team will win a game.

This one had more ups and downs than an amusement park rollercoaster.

The Mules had less than a 25% chance of winning in the sixth, seventh, 10th and 11th innings. It was practically zero with two outs and a 2-2 count when Lauren Webb batted with runners on first and second.

The next pitch was in the turf and both runners moved up and then scored when the throw to third got past two fielders. Poplar Bluff’s chances improved to around 55% at that point. Webb then walked and the probability increased slightly. A single put Webb into scoring position and suddenly the Mules had their best chance of winning since a two-out triple tied the game in the seventh.

The Mules won 9-8 in 11 innings in a comeback that seemed improbable only minutes earlier.

And so it is with the Cardinals and their playoff hopes.

At the end of May, the Cardinals were eight games over .500 and led the NL Central with a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs according to fangraphs.com. Jack Flaherty then got hurt swinging in LA and the Cardinals lost 11 of their next 13.

Flaherty wasn’t the only one to be bitten by the injury bug and he’s one of five players with multiple stints on the injury list. Miles Mikolas (twice), Daniel Ponce de Leon (twice), Andrew Miller (twice), Carlos Martinez (twice), Kwang Hyn Kim (three times), Jordan Hicks (season), Ryan Helsley (season), Wade LeBlanc, Justin Miller, Dakota Hudson, who is working back from Tommy John surgery, Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson have all been hurt.

By August, the Cardinals were 53-52 and had 3.1% chance of making the playoffs. After a brutal walk-off loss in Milwaukee on Sept. 5 and losing the first two games of a series against the Dodgers, playoff hopes had dimmed to 2.8%.

Fans were questioning manager Mike Shildt for resting players in those losses but since then the Cardinals have won seven of eight.

A lot can still happen over the next two weeks, but this recent push is a lot like 2011 when the Cardinals went 18-8 in September and won the World Series. And don’t forget 2006 when the Cardinals had the fewest wins of any World Series winner.

No computer or math formula can figure out the unpredictability of sports.